Traders on the prediction market Kalshi are showing little confidence that Americans will see new stimulus checks, putting the odds of so-called “tariff rebate” payments at just 5% heading into the end of the year.
That’s down from about 13.4% earlier this month, reflecting fading expectations for any government payouts tied to tariff revenue. The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits a little over $451,000.
TRUMP SAYS TARIFF REVENUE TO FUND $2K CHECKS FOR AMERICANS, LOWER NATION’S $38T DEBT
Kalshi lets users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.
President Donald Trump has previously said that tariff revenue could be used to fund $2,000 checks for Americans and help reduce the nation’s $38 trillion debt.
The bearish outlook on stimulus checks comes alongside other wagers reflecting skepticism toward tariff policy, including bets on Kalshi and Polymarket that the Supreme Court will not uphold Trump’s tariff plan.
On Kalshi, the probability of the court siding with Trump has fallen to 22%, down 23 points after oral arguments signaled skepticism from the justices. Polymarket mirrors that sentiment, with odds also around 23%, down 15 points over the same period.
PREDICTION MARKETS PUT TRUMP TARIFF WIN AT 24% FOLLOWING SUPREME COURT ORAL ARGUMENTS
The sentiment on prediction markets comes as Trump’s trade policies face renewed legal scrutiny, with the Supreme Court weighing on Nov. 5 whether his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs is legal.
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He has also previously warned that the U.S. would be “virtually defenseless against other countries” and has called the case “life or death for our country.”
The Supreme Court has not yet issued its ruling, leaving the future of Trump’s trade agenda and the tariffs at the center of it in limbo.
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