MORNING GLORY: What is the Congressional GOP waiting for?

Nothing is ever certain in American politics, but the tidal charts of federal elections have proven pretty reliable over the years. “The people” have established firm patterns, but they also allow for upsets.

According to those tidal charts, the GOP should get “thumped” in the November 2026 congressional “off-year” elections, especially as it is the first vote since the incumbent president won (“Thumped” is a highly technical term of art used by President George W. Bush to describe the results after his party took it on the chin in the electoral counts of 2006.)

There are, however, “outlier” years that are the exceptions that prove the above rule. In the 2002 “out year,” for example, the GOP was supposed to lose because “W” had won two years earlier, but the Republicans picked up eight seats in the House and two in the Senate. That was, of course, the election that followed 9/11 by 14 months and the variation from the pattern was attributed to that.

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By contrast, Democrats got crushed in 2010 —the “off year” that followed President Obama’s historic landslide in 2008. In 2010, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and eight in the Senate. (The “thumping” W referred to in 2006 was, by contrast to that of 2010, not so bad. When the votes were tallied the GOP waved goodbye to 31 House members and 6 senators. (Maybe it was only a “half thumping” given how badly the Obama-led Democrats got whomped in 2010.)

Republicans got torched again in the House in 2018 in the first off-year of President Trump’s first term, losing 41 seats (but gaining two in the Senate.) Four years later, with President Biden in office, an expected “red wave” did not materialize, and the incumbent party, as in 2002, outperformed — picking up one seat in the Senate and only losing nine in the House.

So there is a strong, but not inevitable likelihood that the “out” party wins seats in “out years” and the Democrats are definitely the “out” party having gotten thrashed by President Trump and the GOP in 2024.

So if you had to bet your house (not the House but your own), you’d be well advised to expect a Democratic Speaker behind President Trump at the 2027 State of the Union. House Speaker Mike Johnson sits atop a narrow GOP majority as it is, and history’s tide is running against him, so things will have to break just right for him to hold on to the gavel. (Johnson does have the support of President Trump and so endangered House incumbents will be begging 45-47 to campaign in their districts.)

The 2026 Senate campaign, by contrast, is shaping up to provide a map that favors the Republicans, especially if Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia is persuaded to challenge incumbent Senator John Ossoff (who was not hurt by his “boy band” youthful looks when he won in 2020, but who had to beat Hershel Walker, not a wildly popular incumbent governor like Kemp). Former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu is eyeing a run for an open seat in the Granite State, and open seats in Michigan and Minnesota that have been vacated by Democrats also present attractive targets for the GOP.

Republican incumbent Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are the Democratic “targets.” Both are terrific candidates on the trail, as well as the sort of senators with enough seniority to continue to really help their states when they return in 2028. Senator Collins, for example, chairs the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations, among the most powerful jobs in D.C. Both Collins and Tillis will run hard through the tape and almost certainly win. (Senator Collins is as close to sainthood as a senator can get in her home digs so while the Democrats will try and get national media to fall for the “it’s competitive” line again, it won’t be.)

The GOP should probably hold on to the Senate in 2026 and probably lose the House. Which is unfortunate because that result means Impeachment Theater 3000 for President Trump as the House Democrats are starting to make the Jacobins seem reasonable. That is because what progressives love more than anything: fake drama fed by fake news over fake alleged high crimes and misdemeanors by Donald Trump. They are addicted to hating Trump. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a semi-annual impeachment circus from 2027-2028 if the GOP loses the House in November 2026. . .

President Trump can’t relish the thought of another few rounds of Beltway Kabuki, and he can do something about it. He can set the GOP up to win in 2026.

It is time for the president to summon the leaders of his party in Congress to the Teddy Roosevelt Room in the West Wing along with the half-dozen senior legislators on the relevant committees, and get the budget and reconciliation package done. This task isn’t remotely as hard as hammering out an even moderately complicated multi-use land development project and the two top Republicans are very smart —Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Thune. Trump can push this along.

I’ve long been an agnostic on the “one big beautiful bill” v. two or even three at-bats at the legislative plate for such a set of laws. They only require 51 votes in the Senate and there’s been a long conversation on the Hill about one, two or even three budget/reconciliation bills. Now, however, a spark has appeared behind in favor of getting one done, stat. That spark is named Jerome.

If you paid attention to the remarks of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week, you should have noticed that he was anything other than ebullient. He wasn’t dour. He wasn’t alarmed. In a word, his projections on the economy were “meh”: 1.7% GDP growth in 2025.  Meh.

Republicans really shouldn’t be comfortable with “meh.” They should want booming growth and behind it expanding consumer enthusiasm. We should want to see animal spirits bounding about.

But that is simply not going to happen until businesses and entrepreneurs know what the tax code is going to look like for at least the next few years. Right now the Trump tax cuts of 2017 sunset at the end of the year. That would mean a huge tax hike for most taxpayers come April 2026. Congressional Republicans are confident they can avoid that. But they are not confident of when. Outsiders look at the narrow margin in the House and they’d like to get it done immediately with President Trump twisting arms in a way not seen since LBJ. “Not necessary!” say Republican senators. “We are confident we can get this done.”

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But I’m not. Too many strange things have happened over the years to rely on the words “It will probably pass.” My mantra is “Remember Jim Jeffords” —the GOP senator who bolted the party in the spring of 2001 and took the GOP’s majority with him. “Speed” doesn’t kill on the Hill. It thrills.

And please don’t tell us that it is complicated. Of course it is, because trade-offs must be made. It’s not “hard” in the way, say, farming is hard. Decaying legislative compromises does not require sweat. It requires attention span. The Congressional GOP needs to focus and execute.

That sort of wave off citing complexity, in fact, angers Republican activists who worked and worked and worked to win unified government only to see that unified government —a fact since November— dawdle. Delay is also not going to cut it for owners of businesses who have to consider whether or not to expand their operations. There are a million decisions waiting on the tax bill. So why are we waiting? Do we not want the economy to take off?

I don’t know why these delays have mounted, and I’m sure many folks have great rationales for the meandering path. But if President Trump wants a shot at getting stuff done not just this year and next, but in 2027 and 2028 after actually winning in the fall of 2026, it’s time for him to call a meeting in the Roosevelt Room and get everyone on the same page and marching to the same beat —preferably a quick one.