Major battles over the future of both parties come to a head in key primaries on Tuesday.
For the Republican Party, it’s the latest in a long-running fight: Will the caucus be full of potential rabble-rousers who could make governing even more difficult than it is already, or made up of those more in line with an establishment that sees governing as a top priority?
In the interest of maintaining the majority, House leadership and former President Donald Trump have largely been on the same page with endorsements this cycle. But Colorado’s 5th District, a safe red seat, is an exception — Trump is backing embattled Colorado Republican Party Chair Dave Williams, while Speaker Mike Johnson is supporting conservative commentator Jeff Crank.
The Colorado Republican Party has also bucked Johnson’s pick in the battleground 8th District. And similar fractures are apparent in Utah, where the state Republican Party endorsed against its own GOP incumbent members of Congress and governor.
Democrats are grappling with their own intraparty conflicts. In the safe blue New York 16th District, a high-dollar primary challenge to the Squad’s Rep. Jamaal Bowman is the latest example of the Democratic Party’s divisions over the war in Gaza. Elsewhere in the state, Democrats are determining their nominees to take on Republicans in battleground races that will play a major role in determining control of the House.
Here are the races to watch today:
New York
Incumbents have proved hard to unseat this cycle. But Bowman could be the first Democrat to lose a reelection bid this year.
The two-term incumbent has to overcome his public blunders and a barrage of spending from outside groups to beat George Latimer, a popular county executive.
The contentious race is the biggest bet so far for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has dropped millions in primaries on both sides of the aisle this year. The deep-pocketed pro-Israel group has targeted Bowman for his support of Palestinians amid the war in Gaza. AIPAC skipped out on targeting Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), the first member of the Squad to face a primary, and Bowman’s race will set the tone for the closing stretch of primaries this summer, when the group is targeting fellow Squad member Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.).
And while Bowman’s race won’t affect the chamber’s majority — the winner would cruise to victory in November in the deep-blue seat — control could be determined elsewhere in New York this fall, and Tuesday will set those battleground races.
Two contested Democratic primaries are taking place in the 1st and 22nd Districts to take on Republican Reps. Nick LaLota and Brandon Williams, respectively. In the 1st District on Long Island, former CNN anchor John Avlon and Nancy Goroff, a former professor who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2020, are facing off in an increasingly contentious and expensive primary.
Farther upstate, Williams will find out whether his challenger in this district that President Joe Biden won in 2020 will be state Sen. John Mannion or town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood, who came in second place in the Democratic primary during the midterms. Klee Hood has a raising and spending advantage over Mannion, although as a former teacher he has the support of outside educator groups.
In the closing days of the race, former staffers accused Mannion of creating a hostile work environment, which he called a “false political attack.” Klee Hood’s campaign denied any “involvement in the staffers’ efforts to come forward” and encouraged the state Legislature’s investigation to proceed.
A handful of other House battlegrounds don’t have primaries, including the 4th, where Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito will face Democrat Laura Gillen, who narrowly lost to him in the midterms; the 17th, where former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones will take on Republican Rep. Mike Lawler; NY-18, where Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan has a challenge from Republican Alison Esposito, the 2022 candidate for lieutenant governor; and the 19th, where Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley have a rematch from the midterms.
One GOP primary to watch: In the safe GOP 24th District, Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney has been on the offense as she faces a challenge from the right from Mario Fratto, where she maintains a strong fundraising and spending advantage.
Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is also up for reelection this year, although both primaries are uncontested. She’ll be the heavy favorite as she goes up against retired New York City Police Department Detective Michael Sapraicone in the fall.
Polls close at 9 p.m. EST.
Colorado
Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert’s path to reelection looked tricky at the beginning of the cycle, as she stared down a likely rematch against the same Democrat who nearly defeated her in the midterms — and dealt with negative attention after she caused a disturbance during a production of “Beetlejuice” in Denver. But she’s hoping that hopping to a district across the state can create an easier path back to Washington.
Boebert abandoned her 3rd District and is now running in the 4th District, a deep red seat that former Rep. Ken Buck left earlier this year.
There are two contests on the ballot today: the special election to replace Buck for the rest of the year and the primary for the full term starting in 2025. Boebert chose not to run in the special election so she wouldn’t have to vacate her current seat. (Greg Lopez, Republicans’ special election nominee, is not running for the full term.) A half-dozen candidates are running in the GOP primary field, and Boebert has a strong financial advantage, as well as the coveted endorsement from Trump.
Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a former congressional and campaign staffer, will face Lopez in the special election. She’s also running for the full term, where she’s up against Ike McCorkle and John Padora, both of whom have her beat on the fundraising front.
In Boebert’s old seat, Democrat Adam Frisch — a strong fundraiser who came less than one point away from unseating her two years ago — is also trying to make his path in November easier. In the final stretch of the campaign, he hit the air with a spot attacking Jeff Hurd, establishment Republicans’ preferred pick, in an effort to boost Republican Ron Hanks. Hanks has a controversial past that could put into play what might otherwise be an uncompetitive seat. Meanwhile, the House GOP leadership-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund went after Hanks on the airwaves in an attempt to block him from winning the primary.
And that’s not the only primary meddling going on in Colorado. Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action, two super PACs that have played in safe-seat Republican primaries across the country this cycle in an attempt to thwart potential troublemakers, have dropped close to $2 million combined in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn, boosting Crank over Williams, the state party chair who has aligned himself closely with Trump.
Williams is currently under pressure from local Republican leaders to resign as chair, due in part to an email he sent from the state party account that attacked Pride Month. Some Republicans have also taken issue with how Williams used the position to boost his congressional campaign and the direction he was leading the party. Under his leadership, the party broke from precedent to endorse in contested primaries.
Most critically, the state party endorsed former state Rep. Janak Joshi over state Rep. Gabe Evans, who has the support of national Republicans like Johnson, for the GOP nod to take on Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in the battleground 8th District. Evans declined to seek the Colorado GOP endorsement, saying that he doesn’t think that a “state party that’s trying to pick winners and losers within the Republican primary” is the best way to demonstrate “big tent principles.”
Polls close at 9 p.m. EST.
Utah
The Utah Republican Party is backing a handful of Republicans running to the right of incumbents, including state Rep. Phil Lyman, who’s running against Gov. Spencer Cox, and Colby Jenkins, a veteran who’s looking to unseat Rep. Celeste Maloy.
Both Cox and Maloy have a strong financial advantage over their respective challengers. But having the state party endorsement has proved powerful: Just last year, Maloy was a little-known candidate who received the party backing, propelling her to victory in a special election.
Still, Maloy can boast having the Trump endorsement, along with the backing of most of her congressional delegation (except Sen. Mike Lee, who’s supporting her opponent). Cox, who has spoken out against the former president, may not have that to rely on, but he is one of the most popular governors in the country.
The Trump factor is also prevalent in the race to replace one of his biggest critics: retiring Republican Sen. Mitt Romney. Trump is backing Trent Staggs, a local mayor who also has the state party’s nod in the crowded field. But polling has shown Rep. John Curtis with a lead.
There are five Republicans in the contest to succeed Curtis in the red 3rd District, including state Sen. Mike Kennedy, who has the party backing, and self-funding businessperson Case Lawrence.
Polls close at 10 p.m. EST.
South Carolina
The power of Trump’s endorsement is once again put to the test in the Republican primary runoff in South Carolina’s 3rd District.
Pastor Mark Burns and nurse practitioner Sheri Biggs are facing off in the safe red seat to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan, and the winner of today’s race will likely cruise to victory in the fall.
Burns, who finished narrowly ahead of Biggs in the primary, clinched the Trump endorsement back in April, while Gov. Henry McMaster threw his backing behind Biggs.
Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action have mobilized against Burns, a longtime Trump ally who has been outspoken attacking the LBGTQ+ community. Combined, the groups have poured in more than $500,000 in an attempt to block Burns.
Polls close at 7 p.m. EST.
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