Posted on Tuesday, August 26, 2025
|
by Shane Harris
|
0 Comments
|
Americans have become accustomed to control of Congress coming down to a handful of toss-up seats and increasingly small majorities no matter which party emerges victorious. But historically, fierce back-and-forth competition has been the exception rather than the norm, and there are some signs that the country could be headed for another period of long-term Republican dominance.
The Historical Record
Since the birth of the modern Democrat vs. Republican two-party system in the mid-1850s, both parties have had long “streaks” of victories defined by large, durable majorities, as the chart below shows.
From the 1860s up until 1933, Republicans, the party of Abraham Lincoln, dominated Congress. The GOP controlled the Senate for 18 straight years from 1861 to 1879, and held the gavel in the House for 16 years from 1859 to 1875. Overall, in the 78 years between 1855 and 1933, Republicans held a majority in the Senate for 62 years, and a majority in the House for 54 years, including three stretches of 16 years in a row.
That all changed in 1933 amid the depths of the Great Depression and the emergence of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal Coalition. Democrats’ dominance for the rest of the century was even more complete than Republicans’ in the previous century. Between 1933 and 1980, the GOP managed to win control of the Senate just twice, in 1946 and 1952, with the election of President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Those gains were then quickly erased in the following cycle.
It wasn’t until the “Reagan Revolution” in 1980 that Republicans were able to pull off a series of major upsets in blue-state Senate races and win back control of the chamber for an extended period of time. Still, after six years, Democrats reeled off four straight cycles of Senate majorities.
Democrat control was even more complete in the House. Between 1932 and 1994, Republicans managed to win control of the chamber just twice, and those victories were quickly erased in the following cycle. That’s 62 years in which Republicans held control of the House for just four years – about 6.5 percent of the time.
A New Era
The 1994 election, the year of Newt Gingrich’s famous “Contract With America,” initially appeared to be a harbinger of boom times for the GOP. Republicans reeled off six straight House victories, taking control of the chamber for 12 years – the first period of sustained control since the early 1900s. At the same time, Republicans won control of the Senate for 10 of 12 years between 1995 and 2009. George W. Bush’s victories in 2000 and 2004 were another good sign for the GOP.
At the same time, however, a new trend was emerging – razor-thin majorities. The previous eras of Republican and Democrat dominance were defined by huge swings in party power. In the 1860s and 1870s, Republicans often controlled more than 70 percent of seats in both the House and the Senate. In the 1930s and 1940s, Democrats saw the same level of control.
Suddenly, those margins became extremely close as the country sank further into a state of deep partisan divisions and the two parties became ideologically polarized – primarily as a result of Democrats lurching to the left. Since 2016, neither party has won more than a three-seat majority in the Senate. In the House, the margin of victory has shrunk every year since 2016. The five-seat House majority that Republicans won last year is the smallest for either party since the early 1930s.
One interpretation of this trend is that the country is heading toward a more prolonged era of intense battles for a few seats that will determine which party has a small majority. That’s certainly possible.
Another possibility, however, is that, from a long-term view, the country is transitioning from a time of extended Democrat control to another time of extended Republican control.
There is some evidence to support this theory. A recent Wall Street Journal poll found that the Democrat Party has its lowest approval rating with voters in 35 years. The party remains leaderless and rudderless following Kamala Harris’s defeat last November. Its most high-profile leaders are all aging octogenarians. Its youngest faces, like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Zohran Mamdani, are radical socialists who are deeply out of step with everyday Americans. Mounting divisions between the emergent progressive wing and the ever-shrinking faction of moderates are threatening to tear the party apart further. The dominoes could be lining up for a catastrophic Democrat collapse.
Of course, that assumes Republicans take full advantage of the situation and don’t allow self-inflicted wounds to become a life raft for Democrats. In 1932, FDR and the New Deal Democrats fully capitalized on the unpopularity of the incumbent Republican administration to sell a hopeful vision for what America could be. Donald Trump leaned on that strategy in 2024 as well, drawing on the successes of his first administration.
The GOP shouldn’t lock itself into believing that every election is about winning a few toss-up seats and hoping for small majorities. In the right scenario, the next wave election could be as soon as next year, and Republicans could be headed for their next extended period of dominance.
Shane Harris is the Editor in Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
Read the full article here