Posted on Tuesday, May 27, 2025
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by Sarah Katherine Sisk
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41 Comments
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The national average price for a gallon of gasoline plunged below $3.20 over Memorial Day weekend, well below last year’s $3.58. While this is slightly higher than GasBuddy’s projection of $3.08, prices were nonetheless the lowest they’ve been for the holiday in four years – and the second-lowest they’ve been in 20 years when adjusting for inflation.
These lower prices may have played a role in getting more Americans on the road. AAA projected a record-breaking 45.1 million people would travel at least 50 miles from home over the holiday weekend, marking the busiest travel period in more than two decades.
Industry analysts expect gas prices to keep easing through the summer, with some projecting national averages could slip below $3 per gallon before Labor Day. GasBuddy forecasts a summer average of $3.02, with occasional days dipping under the $3 mark.
Looking further ahead, the EIA estimates average gasoline prices will fall about three percent in 2025 compared with 2024, and another six percent in 2026 – a modest but meaningful break for drivers.
More than just a seasonal dip, the recent drop in gas prices marks a continuation of a broader trend linked to President Donald Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda.
Within days of taking office in January, Trump signed a series of executive orders to “unleash” American energy by expanding domestic oil and gas production, reducing regulatory hurdles, and greenlighting pipeline and drilling projects that had been stalled or shelved under the Biden administration’s stifling “Green New Deal” policies.
Industry leaders, along with drivers, have welcomed the shift under Trump. “Americans sent a clear message at the ballot box, and President Trump is answering the call on Day One – U.S. energy dominance will drive our nation’s economic and security agenda,” said Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute. “Directing regulators to expand access to resources, lift the [liquefied natural gas] pause, streamline permitting processes, and roll back heavy-handed vehicle mandates will help deliver a stronger, more prosperous energy future for all Americans.”
Trump’s recent trip to the Middle East reinforced his energy-first approach by securing $2 trillion in investment commitments to strengthen U.S. energy security and economic ties through concrete deals on oil, defense, and technology. In contrast, Biden’s 2022 visit to Saudi Arabia focused mainly on clean energy initiatives and yielded no meaningful pledge to boost oil production.
OPEC+ has also moved forward with planned production increases amid pressure from Trump, contributing to falling crude oil prices and easing fuel costs for consumers. Starting with a 138,000-barrel-per-day boost in April, the group plans to add 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, according to the Daily Caller.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production has hit record highs, adding crucial supply to the market and helping to push gas prices down.
The White House has embraced this trend as proof that its “America First” energy strategy is working. In a statement heading into the weekend, administration officials called the price drop “the Trump Effect in action,” pointing to record-high U.S. production as a key factor.
It’s a clear departure from the Biden years, when gas prices soared, with some regions seeing costs top $5 per gallon in 2022.
“It was no secret on the campaign trail that Joe Biden wanted to end America’s use of conventional energy such as coal, oil, and natural gas,” the Heritage Foundation wrote in a report on the costs of Biden’s energy policy.
Critics say Biden’s restrictions on new drilling and pipeline construction and his focus on climate regulations led to chronic supply shortages and price shocks. But now, conservatives argue, Trump’s decisive energy policies are delivering real benefits where it matters most.
Lower gas prices are also helping Trump deliver on his central 2024 campaign promise of lowering inflation. Cheaper fuel means companies can ship goods for less, translating to better prices for consumers.
Moreover, as Memorial Day weekend travel data shows, when gas is cheaper, Americans are more likely to hit the road. That means more money for restaurants, tourism, and the hospitality industry. The entire economy benefits.
If gas prices continue their downward trajectory throughout the rest of this year, that will also be welcome news for Republicans heading into the midterms in 2026. In 2022, high gas prices were an anchor on Democrats’ electoral fortunes up and down the ballot. Republicans may be able to reverse that equation – and avoid the dreaded midterm curse – if voters are seeing lower numbers at the pump.
As summer travel ramps up, the drop in gas prices is more than just savings – it’s a renewed promise of energy security and economic stability under Trump’s leadership. It’s clear proof that Trump is committed to keeping the promises he’s made to the American people.
Sarah Katherine Sisk is a proud Hillsdale College alumna and a master’s student in economics at George Mason University. You can follow her on X @SKSisk76.
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