Posted on Saturday, September 13, 2025
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by Ben Solis
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0 Comments
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As all attention was rightly turned to the tragic, horrifying assassination of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk this week, the war in Ukraine took an ominous new turn as NATO scrambled fighter jets to shoot down Russian drones that had crossed into Polish airspace. While the drones did no damage, the United States and the Western alliance should not miss the alarming historical parallels that the incursion evoked.
Following the incident, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the country is at its “closest to open conflict since World War II.” He also called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, which is currently being scheduled.
Preliminary investigations show that at least 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, likely targeting critical infrastructure. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it did not target Poland, while Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, said that the drones “lost their course.”
But the scale of the intrusion makes these claims nearly impossible to believe. The drones were in Polish airspace for several hours the night of September 9 into September 10, from around 11:30 pm to 5:30 am.
Specialists I spoke to said that the length of time the drones were in the air eliminated the possibility that it was accidental. Former Polish Ambassador to NATO Tomasz Szatkowski said that a dozen or more drones “accidentally” crossing into Polish airspace at the same time would “likely require an incredible coincidence.”
Another anonymous high-ranking Bundeswehr officer added that the drones’ electronic tracking technology would only allow them to veer off course a few miles, not the 164 miles into Polish territory where some were shot down. The officer added that the drones were likely targeting a logistics hub in southern Poland which held equipment, ammunition, and transport links for cargo shipments to Ukraine.
Two Dutch F-35s and two Polish F-16s successfully destroyed the drones using short-range air-to-air missiles. American-made Patriot missile batteries also provided radar support. NATO commanders directed the mission from headquarters in Spain and Germany.
In all, the NATO alliance functioned exactly as it should. As one senior NATO official told me, “If Russia genuinely aimed to test the speed of NATO’s air defense response in Europe, it seems that the alliance succeeded.”
But that does not erase the alarming implications of the incursion. Polish defense analyst Jacek Raubo stated that creating a threat to the health and life of Polish citizens is a top priority for Moscow. Other specialists said that the Kremlin hoped to create psychological pressure on the Polish people by instilling doubts about the effectiveness of NATO and the capabilities of the Polish military.
Since the start of Russia’s hostilities with Ukraine, its drones have shown up in Bulgaria, Croatia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania, in addition to Poland. But this most recent incident was far more serious.
Polish President Karol Nawrocki called the incident “an unprecedented moment in the history of NATO and modern Poland.” U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer added that it was a “violation of Polish sovereignty.” Rep. Joe Wilson, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement that it was an “act of war.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted that Russia’s “reckless behavior” is a continuation of provocations along NATO’s eastern flank. The Polish Armed Forces labeled the incident “an act of aggression” which threatened national security.
Poland is all too familiar with such acts of aggression from Russia. In fact, this most recent attack drew eerie parallels to Moscow’s ambitions during the Cold War.
Specifically, the drones were shot down along three corridors in northern, central-eastern, and southern Poland. This alignment recalls the Soviet Union’s plans during the Cold War to launch an invasion of NATO along these same corridors, using Poland as a highway into Europe. This was Moscow’s road map to World War III.
In a 2004 interview with me, General William Odom, President Ronald Reagan’s former NSA Director, explained that these attack routes were referred to as “echelons.” The Red Army’s divisions, he said, “would advance quickly along three main routes through Poland,” similar to those used by Russian drones today.
During the Cold War, NATO’s only solution to slow or stop these echelons would have been, as Odom said, “to launch nuclear attacks on their mid or rear positions.”
“Military planners in Moscow knew that after such a war, Poland would be uninhabitable for 30 years,” he continued. “With support from the Communist Polish Army’s commanders, they aimed to erase Poland from the map for a long time.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is a student of history and was an eyewitness to the Cold War. The symbolism and strategic significance of the drone incursion into Poland is undoubtedly not lost on him. Now, Moscow’s echelons plan may be being put into action, only this time with drones instead of army divisions.
NATO allies should understand this threat and prepare for it accordingly. A strong defensive posture may be all that can deter future conflict.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
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