Next year’s battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to be another nail-biter – but developments in three states over the next several months may go a long way toward determining the outcome before a single vote is cast.
Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a slim 220-212 seat majority. (Several deaths and resignations have left the chamber a few members short of its full contingent of 435). That puts all the more pressure on the GOP as it looks to retain the gavel and prevent Democrats from working to undermine President Donald Trump’s agenda.
Every seat could be the difference in which party wins next November – which is why it’s no surprise that opportunities to draw more favorable congressional maps in some states are getting lots of attention from both parties. The U.S. Constitution gives state legislatures the power to decide how congressional districts are drawn.
While some states have partially ceded that power to courts or redistricting commissions, in most states, lawmakers in the capital still decide where the district lines go – and therefore which party has the edge. Three states, Texas, Ohio, and Wisconsin, could potentially see changes to their congressional maps before next November that impact how many Republicans and Democrats each sends to Washington.
Texas, with its 38 House seats, is the most consequential of the three. According to a New York Times report out earlier this month, the White House is pressuring Lone Star State lawmakers to embark on a rare mid-decade redistricting session. States typically only draw new district maps every 10 years after the Census. The last round of redistricting came following the 2020 Census.
According to the Times, GOP officials “believe that Republicans could potentially pick up as many as four or five House seats in 2026” if the maps are redrawn. However, there is pushback from some Texas Republicans who fear redrawing maps could unnecessarily endanger incumbents.
It’s a simple math equation. Every Republican voter in a Republican district that is redrawn into a Democrat district is one less Republican voter for that incumbent Republican member. A new map might take a 60-40 Republican and 60-40 Democrat district and draw two 55-45 Republican districts. That gives Republicans an edge in both districts – but also makes both competitive for Democrats if it’s a tough environment for Republicans.
The Times reports that most incumbent House Republicans from the Texas delegation have little desire to redraw their districts. But lawmakers in Austin seem more open to the idea.
Republicans also see opportunity in Ohio, which has state-mandated redistricting ahead of the 2026 election. Currently, Republicans hold 10 of the Buckeye State’s 15 U.S. House seats and see an opportunity for picking up two or three more. Ohio is now reliably red, but even districts that went for Trump in 2024 have elected Democrat members.
Specifically, Republican leaders see Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur’s (OH-9) seat as a chance for a pick-up, since her district supported Trump. However, as noted by Punchbowl News, the same voters also keep re-electing Kaptur. The Democrat Congresswoman has been in office since 1983, making her an entrenched power. Nevertheless, Kaptur won by less than one percent in 2024, making it very likely she could be defeated.
The redistricting process undoubtedly favors Republicans. “The Ohio Constitution says a 60 percent majority of the General Assembly must pass a plan by the end of September,” according to the Statehouse News Bureau. Republicans hold well over 60 percent of seats in both the Ohio Senate and the Ohio House.
This means Republicans can pass an approved plan without any Democrat support. If a plan is not passed by October 1, it goes to a redistricting commission, which is also controlled by the GOP. Legal challenges to the process would likely fail since the state Supreme Court has a conservative majority.
Senator Bernie Moreno, a Republican, predicted his party will “probably end up” with at least 12 seats. However, moving district lines is not a guaranteed win.
“In light of the White House push to force a new Texas map, it’s safe to imagine Trump’s team also wants Ohio Republicans to be aggressive,” Punchbowl News said in its analysis of the situation. “But just like in Texas, Republicans need to be careful not to spread their voters too thin and endanger incumbents.”
Democrats have an opportunity of their own to pick up seats in Wisconsin – thanks in large part to Susan Crawford’s victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election back in April. That win allowed liberals to maintain their 4-3 majority.
While running for election, Crawford raised eyebrows by participating in a fundraising call with Democrats where she strongly suggested that, if she were elected, she would hear a challenge to the state’s congressional map and rule in favor of drawing new lines that advantage Democrats.
“In an appeal to entice out-of-state billionaires, Susan Crawford said the quiet part out loud: she is begging to be bought and paid for,” Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Brian Schimming said at the time. A Crawford spokeswoman said the judge participated in the call “briefly to share her background and why she’s running.”
Sure enough, soon after Crawford’s victory, a Democrat law firm brought a suit challenging Wisconsin’s map, which currently has a 6-2 Republican split. That lawsuit is still pending, but it is very likely Crawford could be asked to weigh in once she takes her seat in August.
Democrats and Republicans will both undoubtedly accuse the other of trying to rig the game in their favor. But they do agree on one thing – the battle for control of the U.S. House is already underway in courtrooms and state legislatures.
AMAC Newsline contributor Matt Lamb is an associate editor for The College Fix. He previously worked for Students for Life of America, Students for Life Action, and Turning Point USA. He previously interned for Open the Books. His writing has also appeared in the Washington Examiner, The Federalist, LifeSiteNews, Human Life Review, Headline USA, and other outlets. The opinions expressed are his own. Follow him @mattlamb22 on X.
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