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President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the U.S. had seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, elevating the likelihood of a disruption that could raise costs within the oil and energy sector for Americans — under certain conditions.
The seizure of the oil tanker signifies a major escalation with Venezuela and exerts even more pressure on Caracas, which already is subjected to U.S. oil sanctions. Meanwhile, the president has discussed for weeks that he’s considering conducting land strikes in Venezuela — on top of his strikes against alleged drug boats in Latin American waters — as the next step in his campaign against the flow of drugs into the U.S.
Whether U.S. gas and energy prices increase will depend on the type of steps taken as part of a military intervention against Venezuela, including if energy facilities are targeted and if oil from Venezuela becomes more scarce, according to Kevin Book, managing director of the research firm ClearView Energy Partners.
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“In the event of regime change of substantial turmoil within Venezuela, you could see disruption to the related and supporting industries, everything from power to ports, that is an essential part of getting oil onto the market and from Venezuela,” Book said.
Venezuela currently produces roughly 1 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for roughly 1% of global production — and if that oil is taken off of the market, the price of oil for the U.S. will increase, Book said.
In addition to a decrease in oil production, U.S. prices could also go up because of the type of oil that comes from Venezuela, according to Book. That’s because oil refineries in the U.S. Gulf Coast are dependent on heavy sour oil, which comes from countries like Venezuela, Mexico and Canada.
“Venezuela currently produces more than a million barrels per day, approximately one percent of global supply,” Book said. “But more importantly, second point, Venezuela’s oil is of a specific grade that is particularly useful for refineries in America’s Gulf Coast. And so the gasoline we produce and export to the world, manufactured from that grade of oil, could become slightly more expensive, not just because oil is off the market, but because a specific grade is also not available.”
“Losing that crude stream in short could raise the price of production at those refineries,” Book said.
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Book predicted a full disruption of Venezuelan oil production could mean Americans would see a price hike between $0.05 and $0.18 a gallon for gas. If the disruption caused Venezuela to retaliate and strike oil production facilities within Guyana, a U.S. ally, costs could rise even more steeply amid a regional disruption, he warned.
“But there might not be a disruption of either producer, depending on the character of any escalation,” Book said.
It’s unclear what the administration has planned in Venezuela amid its crusade against the influx of drugs into the U.S., and the White House has refused to provide comment to Fox News Digital on whether the Trump administration is seeking a regime change.
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Even so, the Trump administration does not acknowledge Maduro as a legitimate head of state and claims he is the leader of a drug cartel. Additionally, the Trump administration increased the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest in August to $50 million.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also signaled a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, as well as positive changes within Venezuela, could lead to lower gas and oil prices.
“The peace deals — we are seeing a peace dividend from that. I think there’s a very good chance that if something happens with Russia–Ukraine, if something happens down in Venezuela, that we could really see oil prices go down even more,” Bessent said in a November interview with Fox News. “Oil and gasoline prices are down substantially under President Trump. And really the key to affordability is lower energy” prices.
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Bessent’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital regarding what action and change he was referring to within Venezuela.
The U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker Wednesday marks a major escalation in relations with Caracas.
“We’ve just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela. Large tanker, very large,” Trump said Wednesday. “Largest one ever seized action. And, other things are happening. So you’ll be seeing that later. And you’ll be talking about that later with some other people.”
The Trump administration has conducted more than 20 strikes in Latin American waters since September targeting alleged drug smugglers in an effort to combat the flow of drugs into the U.S. Trump has signaled for months that strikes on land could be next.
“We’re knocking out drug boats right now at a level that we haven’t seen,” Trump said Dec. 3. “Very soon we’re going to start doing it on land too.”
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The last confirmed strike occurred Dec. 4 — the most recent since Nov. 15. The strikes have attracted scrutiny from Democrats and some Republicans, amid questions about their legality.
“We’ve only just begun striking narco-boats and putting narco-terrorists at the bottom of the ocean because they’ve been poisoning the American people,” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Dec. 2.
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Separately, gas prices have dropped to a new low. The national average for regular gas fell to $2.99 on Dec. 1, AAA reported. It marked the first time prices had gone below $3 a gallon in four years.
Fox News’ Kristen Altus contributed to this report.
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