Study Says FBI Undercounts How Often Armed Citizens Stop Shooters
New data from the Crime Prevention Research Center claims armed citizens stop active-shooter attacks far more often than FBI figures suggest, reigniting a dispute over how the federal government counts defensive gun use.
Snapshot
CPRC President Dr. John Lott, writing in an October 23 National Review piece, says his organization identified 615 active-shooter incidents from 2014 through 2025, with armed civilians stopping 225 of them, a 36.6% rate. That compares with the FBI's count of 408 incidents and just 16 credited to armed citizens, or 3.9%.
Key points
- Big gap in the numbers: CPRC's 36.6% stop rate is nearly ten times the FBI's 3.9%, based on a larger incident list and different classification decisions.
- Misclassification cited: CPRC points to cases like the 2019 West Freeway Church of Christ shooting and the 2025 CrossPointe Community Church attack, where armed volunteers were labeled "security personnel" rather than ordinary citizens.
- Carry locations matter most: In places where citizens can legally carry, CPRC found a 52.9% stop rate overall, rising to 56.3% over the most recent five years.
- FBI's response: The bureau has told journalist John Stossel its data serve as a "baseline," not a complete accounting of every incident.
- Greenwood Mall example: CPRC cites the 2022 Indiana mall shooting, where a 22-year-old armed citizen returned fire within 15 seconds, as evidence such interventions are less rare than federal statistics imply.
Quick take
The discrepancy matters because federal active-shooter statistics routinely shape debates over concealed carry and gun-free zones. CPRC's research doesn't prove every outcome would differ under different carry laws, but it does raise real questions about whether current federal data undercounts how often armed citizens step in before more people are hurt.
Read the full story: ammoland.com