We just finished up rivalry weekend in Major League Baseball. This used to be known as the cross-town classics or the interleague play games before everyone played every team each year. I get that there are some teams, like the Cubs and Sox, or Yankees and Mets, who have battles because they truly are rivals. I feel like more accurate rivals are teams like the Guardians and Tigers, who are in the same division and met in the postseason last year.
The Cleveland Guardians stole the American League Division last year after being in second or third place most of the season. A hot August and September propelled them to win the division, but they ultimately lost to the Tigers in the postseason. This year, they are in first place in the AL Central with a 26-22 record overall. I won’t say their statistics are super impressive, but as usual, they are manufacturing runs and relying on a solid pitching staff.
What might be most encouraging for them is that the current success they have is with Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan underperforming. Another guy who is underperforming currently is tonight’s starter, Slade Cecconi. He has a 2-4 record with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. His road starts have been worse than the home outings as well. The Guardians lost his first six starts of the season, but have won his past three, including two on the road. He hasn’t faced the Tigers this season, but has held them to eight hits in 35 at-bats against him. Three of them have gone over the fence, though.
The Detroit Tigers haven’t quite found their footing yet. For the season, they are just 20-27. They do have a winning record at home, but they aren’t quite locked in at the moment. They have lost five of their past six games, and they have lost 10 of their past 12 games. I know that Tarik Skubal has been away from the team for a while, but he only makes one start every five days, so that’s no excuse for them slumping.
The Tigers haven’t been blown out in a lot of the games. In the 10 losses, they have four of them by just one run. However, in that same stretch, the Tigers have scored three or fewer earned runs in nine of the past 12 games. Framber Valdez is taking the mound for the Tigers tonight. Unfortunately for Detroit, Valdez has made more headlines for throwing at a hitter than he has for success on the mound. For the year, he is 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. When he has been bad, it has been ugly — allowing seven or more earned runs in two starts. However, the remaining seven outings have seen him allow two or fewer. Guardians hitters have struggled against him in the past, going 6-for-38 against him.
While Valdez’s numbers are ugly, I think his starts have actually been exactly what you’d expect. Most of them are quality starts. Cecconi will eventually lock in and get where he needs to be, and he has a good chance to do that tonight. I lean to the Tigers winning the game, but I’m not going to back it because they’ve been so bad lately. I do think this is a good spot to back the under. Take under eight runs in this game with Valdez, hopefully being the typically reliable guy on the mound.
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