It was a strong day on the diamond as both main plays I put out for the day cashed. We went 0-1 in the player props I recommended, as Christopher Morel didn’t get into the game yesterday. Not a big deal, as the main plays cashed and that’s what we are looking for anyway.
Today we go back to the diamond, hoping for another strong day as we have the Toronto Blue Jays taking on the Cleveland Guardians.
The Blue Jays have had a rather interesting season.
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They are currently just three games under .500 and actually look like they have a chance to make the postseason. At the trade deadline, the team decided to trade away players and just look forward to next year, but it seems like that may have been a bit preemptive. The team was just six games under .500 at the All-Star Break, so it isn’t like they’ve moved up a ton since the break. However, they are just 2.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot, which happens to be owned by the Guardians.
Looking to get them closer to that final playoff spot is Dylan Cease.
This is one offseason addition who seems to be worth every penny spent. Regardless of how the team looks overall, Cease has put together a very strong campaign. He is 9-5 for the season with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He is also tied for second in the Majors with 217 strikeouts. That puts him in the lead for two of the three categories for the American League Triple Crown. He has been ridiculously good on the road this season as well, throwing to a 1.67 ERA as a visitor. He has only allowed 11 earned runs in his past 67 innings as well. Cease has been decent against Guardians hitters, holding them to 26 hits in 105 at-bats, but only nine of them have been for extra bases.
The Guardians are the owners of the final Wild Card spot. Cleveland is also still in contention for their division with just three games separating them and the White Sox. If they finish this year as they did last year, they will once again grab the division crown. The Guardians are not a team with a ton of star talent, but they continue to build winners based on a mixture of power hitting, contact, smart players, defense, and a solid enough pitching staff.
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Speaking of the pitching staff, today the Guardians send out Joey Cantillo to start the game.
For the year, Cantillo is 9-7 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. That is quite a bit of traffic on the basepaths, but given his 145 strikeouts for the season, he seems to get hitters swinging when needed. Cantillo doesn’t really have any drastic splits for the season. He has been rather consistent overall, but slightly better at home than on the road. He is coming off of his best or second-best month of the season. Blue Jays hitters haven’t seen much of him, but they are hitting 5-for-15 against him.
Today is one of those games where you have to just take the better pitcher and move on. Cease is the better pitcher, and the Blue Jays are playing decent enough baseball to back them, even on the road where they have struggled.
Cease has been elite on the road, and if you’re more comfortable, take the first five innings; it is definitely the smarter play, but it is at -160. That’s not the best sports gambling advice to give out numbers like that. You can play them on the run line there if you’d like, but I’ll take them for the game at -131.
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